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'People Don't Want To Be StupidTwice': Foreign Diplomats Betting On Trump Win In 2020

“人们不想再蠢下去了”:外国外交官押注特朗普赢得2020选举

Following Donald Trump's upset victory in the 2016 US election,foreign diplomats who have spent over two years adjusting to Trumpiandiplomacy are now coming to grips with the following;

特朗普在2016年的大选中意外获胜,那些花了两年时间来适应特朗普政策的外国外交官要开始面对以下问题了:

Trump's 2016 win wasnot a fluke, he has a good chance of winning again, and there's no'just riding it out' anymore.

特朗普在2016年的胜利并不是侥幸,再来一次他还是有很大机会,也不再会是“惨胜”了。



"In 2016, nobody believed he was going tobe elected. People don’t want to be stupid twice," former FrenchAmbassador to the US,Gerard Araud, told Politico.

“2016年的时候,没人认为特朗普会当选,人们不会再愚蠢第二次了”,前法国驻美大使GerardAraud告诉《政治》杂志道。

"The way it looks to people is it’s going to be anotherfour years," one Arab diplomat said, adding. "If he gets reelected, he’s bound by nothing, except Congress. AndI don’t know how that’s going to play out."

一位阿拉伯外交官这样说的:“(如果特朗普当选),对人们来说,又要忍受四年了”“如果他再次当选,除了国会以外,没人任何人能约束他了,我也不知道他还会玩出什么花样”



Moreover, candidateslike Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have spoken of similar 'fair'trade deals as Trump.
Politico's conclusion;" no foreign government should bank on getting a better shakepost-Trump."

此外,候选人如BernieSanders与Elizabeth Warren都曾表示,任何外国政府不应寄望于特朗普落败后的政策变更。

"He’s not anisolated phenomenon," said one European diplomat, adding "In hiscampaign and his presidency, he’s just responding to what the American publicfeels. The frustration he expresses, the grievances he responded to in hiscampaign are very often real."

“特朗普并不孤立”,一名欧洲外交官这样表示,并补充道:“他在竞选活动与总统任期内,都只是在回应美国公众的感受,其所表达的沮丧,以及在竞选中表达的不满,往往都是实实在在的”

That hasn’t stopped a few countries from sending signalsthat they’drather wait and see what happens.

但这并不能阻止一些国家发出的信号,他们宁愿等着,看看接下来会发生什么。

China, for one, appears unlikely to strike atrade deal with the U.S. until after the 2020 election. Beijinghas been increasingly reluctant to make concessions as Trump has slapped asteady stream of tariffs on the country’s exports.

比如,在2020年大选之前,中国似乎不太可能与美国达成贸易协定,随着特朗普对中国产品加征关税,中国方面更加不愿意做出让步了。

Iran’s Islamist regime, meanwhile, appearsunwilling to hold new nuclear negotiations with Trump, despitethe president’s repeated imposition of sanctions that have battered thecountry's economy. -Politico

同时,伊朗伊斯兰政权似乎也不愿意与特朗普举行新的核谈判,尽管特朗普一再对伊朗施加制裁,打击了伊朗经济。



Still, Trump touts his friendship with Kim, whom he says has sent him many“beautiful” letters, and has downplayed Kim’s recentshort-range missile tests. Trump has also scaled back U.S.-South Korean jointmilitary exercises, a gift to Kim.

不过,特朗普大吹特吹其与金正恩的友谊,说金正日给他寄了许多“漂亮”的信件,同时却贬低了朝鲜最近的短程导弹试验,并且还缩减了对金正恩的礼物 -- 即举行美韩联合军事演习。

The North Korean ruler may not get suchgenerous treatment from a Democratic president eager to distinguish himself orherself from Trump. -Politico

这位朝鲜领导人大概是无法得到民主党总统如此慷慨的待遇的,因为民主党总统渴望与特朗普划清界限。

Brookings Institution foreign policy analyst Tom Wright notesthat aside from preparing psychologically for another Trump win, governments haven't taken concrete steps towards foreign policydirections ahead of 2020, a sign that they're still holding out fora Democratic win.

布鲁金斯学会外交政策分析师Tom Wrigh指出,除了在心理上为特朗普连任做准备外,对于外交政策的发展方向,各国政府尚未采取具体措施,这意味着他们还在坚持等待着民主党的胜利。

If Trump does winas now expected among Diplomatic ranks, allies such as France and German willhave to give some serious consideration to their military and economicpartnerships with the United States, and that if Trump wins, "futureDemocratic candidates will be more nationalistic," according toWright.

如果正与外交队伍所预期的那样 -- 特朗普获胜,法国和德国等盟国将不得不认真考虑一下他们与美国的军事经济伙伴关系了,如果特朗普获胜,“未来的民主党候选人将更为民族主义”

"It’s not Trump, it’s much wider than him," a seniorEU diplomat told Politico."It’s not anymore that we are the two allies fighting together againstthreats like terrorism. The way they look at us now is mainly as a marketto conquer against Chinese interests. It has become a bilateral strugglebetween them and the Chinese for who conquers Europe or Africa."

“届时就不止是特朗普了,影响范围将会大得多”,一位欧盟高级外交官称,“我们不再是共同对付恐怖主义威胁的盟国了,他们现在主要是将欧盟看成一个有待征服的市场,以此来平衡中国的利益,已然演变成中美的双边斗争了,到底这哥俩谁才能征服欧洲与非洲呢”

"What I’m saying right now is, I think, shared by manypeople," said a Middle Eastern diplomat of the 2020 election, adding"It’s his to lose."

对于2020选举,一名中东外交管这透露道:“我想说的是,我觉得很多人都有同感”,其补充道:“特朗普会输”